I was wrong.

Kristi Yamaguchi is the season six “Dancing with the Stars” champion, and a thoroughly unconventional one at that - she’s the first female winner since season one (putting into question the long-held assumption that the only people that vote for “DwtS” contestants are bored housewives that like hunky dudes), and it’s rather surprising to see an overdog like her, who clearly was better than anyone else since the first week, win it all, not just on “Dancing with the Stars” (where Stacy Keibler and Sabrina Bryan, both obviously better than anyone else in their respective seasons, placed third and seventh) but voter-based competitive reality shows in general - I’ll never forget Jai Rodriguez being eliminated fifth on “Celebrity Duets,” even if he himself probably has. Either people resent them for being better than anyone else, or think they don’t need votes to support them.

Plus, she wasn’t nearly as fun or warm as past winners like Helio Castroneves or Drew Lachey, instead often seeming rather aloof and unemotional. For these many reasons, I was sure all season that she wouldn’t end up winning, despite racking up the highest scores nearly every week. Especially since Jason Taylor - a handsome fellow in the Apolo Anton Ohno model, with a built-in NFL fanbase a la Emmitt Smith, seemed like such a natural pick. But, in a relatively rare occurrence for the show, the clear best dancer won - weird, right?

But once Cristián de la Fuente was eliminated 20 minutes or so into the show, it became obvious that Kristi Yamaguchi had won. Completely nerdy score breakdown after the cut! (more…)

Dancing with the Stars
8 p.m., ABC
Thinking Kristi Yamaguchi is unbeatable after two perfect scores last night? I wouldn’t be so sure - the way “Dancing with the Stars” scoring works (I’m pretty sure, at least), it doesn’t really matter that she got two 30s out of 30, just that she did better than second place Cristián de la Fuente, who got 52 out of 60. So if she has gotten anywhere between a 53 and a 60 (which she got), she would be in essentially the same position. And I can’t imagine voters turning out in droves for her, given that her dominance all season hasn’t exactly endeared the country, and men always do better on this show anyway (the only female winner, Kelly Monaco, was in the show’s nascent first season, and even that was disputed with a silly “dance off” between her and the guy that played Peterman on “Seinfeld”). I do think she’s going to come in second, though, with Jason Taylor probably being the second NFL star (after season three’s Emmitt Smith) to take it all, though I suppose I could see it going the other way without being too shocked, even though I think de la Fuente’s sympathy votes for his arm injury have to be about dried up and he doesn’t have nearly the same American fanbase. I’ve thought way too much about this.

American Idol
7 p.m., Fox
Finalists David Cook and David Archuleta will sing songs picked by two ancient dudes - Andrew Lloyd Webber and Clive Davis. Though I was bummed last week about Syesha Mercado, who I thought was easily cooler and more marketable if not a better vocalists than these two dorks, getting eliminated, at least she won’t have to sing 90 seconds of whatever boring tunes those codgers unearth. David Cook will probably win tomorrow and go on to be Daughtry 2.0 (exactly what this world needs!) and maybe David Archuleta can do whatever a 17 year old with no discernible personality but a great voice can do, like go to Broadway as the world’s tiniest Danny Zuko.

Reaper
8 p.m., The CW
It’s the first season finale, but the show was renewed, which means it’ll be back midseason - January 2009 - and we won’t have to hear about what extraordinary yet misplaced efforts the show’s fans will go through to try and get it back on air (there’s a character named Sock! They could have mailed execs socks! Brilliant!). So, a victory all around, especially given the show’s clear handicap of being on The CW and not about fashionable young rich folks (and the failure of other genre shows this season, like “Bionic Woman” and the resurrected “Jericho”). Tonight’s episode involves demons setting a trap for Sam (Brett Harrison), which kind of sounds like every other episode, but surely there will be a twist of some manner.

Shark
9 p.m., CBS
Shark’s (James Woods) archenemy has broken out of jail! And he’s out for revenge on Shark! What is Shark gonna do? Shark! OK, I don’t know anything about this show. This is the second season finale, but in reality the series finale (since it wasn’t picked up), so it’s probably too late for me to learn about it. I know it has James Woods, and his name is Shark. But he’s not an actual shark, I’m pretty sure. Though that would be a bold choice. I think it’s actually just a nickname, which is disappointing, and further confirms my suspicions that I did the right move in skipping this show.

ALSO ON: Well, that’s about it. There’s the two hour fifth season finale of “NCIS” (7 p.m., CBS), a show, much like its military abbreviation predecessor “JAG,” keeps coming back year after year despite the fact that I’ve never encountered anyone who watches it.

In what was probably the least surprising of the news of the night - yes, even less surprising than a snoozer of a political primary - Marissa Jaret Winokur was eliminated from “Dancing with the Stars.”

A fourth place finish for Winokur might be indicative of a weaker field this year, given that definitely wasn’t as skilled as past fourth placers, like Ian Ziering, Jennie Garth and other people that weren’t on “90210.” But she looked like she was having fun, which I’ve been told is important somehow. Plus, she quite obviously was psyched to be on TV every week, while Jason Taylor and Kristi Yamaguchi don’t really seem to care.

Otherwise, another boring elimination show, other than Len Goodman pervily complimenting the kiddie dancers on their “little bums.” Oh, and also the Charles Nelson Reilly-esque glasses Dana Delany was wearing in the crowd. And, oh, if it’s true that, as Samantha Harris said, that Cristian de la Fuente is indeed “risking long-term injury” by putting off surgery on his arm to try and win “Dancing with the Stars,” he is legitimately a moron.

Dancing with the Stars
8 p.m., ABC
Sorry, Marissa Jaret Winokur. You may be full of spunk, pluck, vim, vigor, and - perhaps - moxie, but you’re going home tonight. I’ve predicted you to be the one going home before, but tonight’s the night. Jason Taylor and Cristian de la Fuente (one of the more fun names to say aloud, I’ve found) are easy picks for the finals (handsome men who are fairly good at dancing = the bread and butter of “Dancing with the Stars”). Despite finishing first (again) last night, Kristi Yamaguchi probably won’t win, but she’s surviving tonight. So it’s down to you, MJDub. No offense, I loved you on “Stacked”!

American Idol
7 p.m., Fox
The three finalists will each perform three songs, with one picked by them, one picked by a judge, and one picked by the show’s producers. David Cook chose “The World I Know” by Collective Soul for himself, further cementing his status as a d-bag (though, as a male contestant on “American Idol,” the odds were certainly against him to be anything else).

Beauty and the Geek
7 p.m., The CW
Do you like “Beauty and the Geek”? Well, sorry. The CW didn’t renew the show, and this is the fifth season, so it probably is the last episode ever, though I suppose I could see VH1 or some channel like that possibly picking it up. I think the two “beauties” from Arizona (Amanda and Cara) are still in the running, but that’s mainly an educated guess.

Women’s Murder Club
9:02 p.m., ABC
This show also didn’t get renewed, which makes this the series finale. I watched part of the first episode, but didn’t make it all the way through, when I found out it was about Angie Harmon being a tough detective rather than a club of women that murder people, which is infinitely more appealing. I apparently missed Rob Estes, though. Please forgive me, Rob Estes!

ALSO ON: It’s the ninth “Law & Order: SVU” season finale (9 p.m., NBC), with, sadly, no comedic actors playing against type as rapists/molesters/murderers to speak of; the second season finale of “The Bad Girls Club” (10 p.m., Oxygen), which sounds a lot more fun than that stodgy “Women’s Murder Club;” and new episodes of the renewed “Reaper” (8 p.m., The CW), the canceled “Shark” (8 p.m., CBS), and the always classy “Shot at Love with Tila Tequila,” starring the titular butterface (10 p.m., MTV).

Well, I was wrong about that one. Pity, too - he was pretty good and getting better, but two males and two females in the final four makes it slightly more interesting, and ostensibly helps the chances of the first woman since Kelly Monaco in season one winning (even though I’m pretty sure Jason Taylor is going to win no matter what).

It was nice to see some of the old celebrities back (and professionals - sup, Ashly DelGrosso), especially season two’s Stacy Keibler, who hasn’t gotten the career boost you might expect from her third place finish. I would have liked to watch the Apolo/Julianne and Mel B./Maksim dances, but the presence of Rascal Flatts meant an automatic FF on the DVR. I’m a pro wrestling fan, so I was used to seeing her every week or so since the year 2000, so after her drop off the radar (guest spots on “What About Brian” don’t count as “the radar”), it was like being reunited with an old friend (but not really, obviously).

Speaking of pro wrestling, it was also the 100th episode of “ECW on Sci Fi,” a WWE-owned show inexplicably on Sci Fi. I started thinking about the fact that I’ve probably seen at least 80% of the 200 combined episodes of those very different (but inarguably silly) shows. Then I got depressed so I started thinking about something else.

After her score of 50 yesterday, I’m pretty sure Marissa Jaret Winokur is going home tonight. But who cares? Tonight is the BIG CRAZY 100TH EPISODE SPECTACULAR. Oh yeah.

Season four champ Apolo Anton Ohno will be back to dance with his partner, making this the triumphant return of the ever-effervescent Julianne Hough. Spice Girl Mel B., who’s there every week “reporting” for “Access Hollywood” anyway, will be dancing as well. Season three’s Mario Lopez, currently on Broadway with “A Chorus Line” (I forgot to take a picture while I was there last month, but they had an awesome sign that said “Now with Mario Lopez!” outside the theater), will also be there, doing some sort of “A Chorus Line” type thing.

Also present: Show vets Sabrina Bryan, Joey Fatone, Master P. (arguably the worst dancer in “DwtS” history!), Jerry Rice, Jane Seymour, Jerry Springer, Wayne Newton and others. Before the elimination episode at 8 p.m., there’s an eminently skippable “judge’s top 10″ from 7 to 8. Whee.

Cristián de la Fuente is smarter than his smoldering, Latin heartthrob looks may imply. By pulling that muscle in his arm tonight, he may have only gotten a 21 for his samba, but he guaranteed avoiding elimination one more week due to the always powerful sympathy vote (see Osmond, Marie. cross-reference “fainting”).

And he needed it - of the six remaining couples, de la Fuente and Cheryl Burke are simply the least…interesting. Marissa Jaret Winokur is a spunky underdog, Shannon Elizabeth has the “are they or aren’t they?” speculation going with her partner Derek Hough, Mario has that going on with Karina Smirnoff and is also racking up great scores, Jason Taylor is handsome with a built-in football fanbase, and Kristi Yamaguchi is simply way better than anyone else (like, in the history of the show. though I do predict that will backfire on her).

Speaking of Yamaguchi and backfiring, she got her lowest score ever tonight - a 26. Not really a bad score, but considering she was getting all 9s at the start and all 10s lately, it’s a regression. A 28 in the second round will help, but wouldn’t be surprised at all if she gets eliminated in the next couple weeks. People have a weird resentment towards celebrities that are already good at something in reality shows - they’d rather see them give an honest effort and then get slightly better - I don’t think anyone besides me remembers “Celebrity Duets,” but “Queer Eye” dude Jai Rodriguez totally should have won, but instead was totally eliminated in the fifth week (leaving a clear path for Carlton from “The Fresh Prince”).

Since Kristi ended up with the second highest combined judges score, I’d say she’s a long shot for this week’s elimination - it’s either going to be Mario or Shannon Elizabeth. They had the same combined score Monday night (51), and men always fare better than women on this show, so I’ll give Mario the nod, especially with how comparatively unlikeable Shannon and Derek have come across in recent weeks complaining about the judge’s scores and comments.

I didn’t even get to see Monday’s “Dancing with the Stars” - I was on a plane coming back to town, and even though it was JetBlue and I was able to catch “How I Met Your Mother” (which I was wrong about, more on that later) and some of “Gossip Girl” (they were on at the same time, d’oh), ABC isn’t one of the networks available on the flight. But I did know that Marlee Matlin only netted a 21, the same score Steve Guttenberg and Priscilla Presley had the weeks they were eliminated - also the lowest score of the week by three points. So it wasn’t shocking that she got the boot this week.  She did well, and outlasted the previous “bravely overcoming a disability” candidate, season four’s Heather Mills (who was eliminated after the fifth week, but had the additional handicap of being pretty much universally reviled). And at least she (probably) won’t have to wear such horrid green eyeshadow again.

So we’re at the halfway point, with obvious front-runner Kristi Yamaguchi, Mario, Jason Taylor, Cristián de la Fuente, Shannon Elizabeth and Marissa Jaret Winokur left. At this point, if Yamaguchi was going to get an early “she’s too good/we don’t need to vote for her/we actually kind of resent her” boot, it would have happened (Sabrina Bryan was axed last season in the sixth week, after getting a perfect score in week four), so she looks likely for the finals (though I still don’t think she’ll actually win). I think de la Feunte, Elizabeth and Winokur are your next eliminations, perhaps in that order (but probably not, I dunno).

What’s much more interesting is the sort of endearing/sort of creepy budding Shannon Elizabeth/Derek Hough relationship.

Don’t blame me. I voted for him 18 times! That’s right, the maximum number of votes between my cell phone and land line. Oh yeah. I’m awesome.

The show is a lot less interesting without him, and I can’t say the same if say, fellow bottom two contestant Priscilla Presley was eliminated. And losing Carolla means also losing two-time winner Julianne Hough, who is obviously rather spunky and appealing. Bummer.

With three men out and only one woman so far, it’s becoming a rather real possibility that a woman could win this season, which hasn’t happened since the very first season (and even that was disputed with that goofy “dance off”). Unless Jason Taylor wins, of course, who I’d say is definitely the favorite at this point (eventually Kristi will probably get the bizarre “she’s too good!” backlash).

By the way, I didn’t post last week about Guttenberg’s elimination, but for those who love puns based on someone being eliminated, it would have been “Gutte gutted.”

You could also do “Penn: Vanishing act” if you want to tie more into his profession and less of a pun.

Alright, so if I knew that it was one man and one woman getting eliminated, and not just the bottom two overall, I think I would have picked correctly. I got Monica Seles right, but tripped up with the whole Penn Jillette thing.

I really shouldn’t have, though - not only was Penn a bad dancer, but, as anyone who has seen his Showtime series can attest, he’s also comes across as really smug. It was neat to see a sad Teller react to it, though.

As far as Seles goes, that was just kind of sad. She was one of the best tennis players in history, who courageously returned from being STABBED BY A CRAZY MAN, and there she is now, with sparkly eyeshadow, getting eliminated on the first week from “Dancing with the Stars.” It was the first time I actually felt bad for anyone on the show.

I’ve never really thought about it before, but why do they wear the same outfits on the elimination shows that they do on the competition shows the night before? Is the implication that they’ve been practicing so hard they haven’t had time to change in 24 hours?

Also, is Cristián de la Fuente the creepiest looking Latin heartthrob of all time? He’s kind of balding and sweaty and beady-eyed.